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How Confident Are You About That?
The Iceberg Effect
If weāre not right, weāll simply be labelled as wrong.
At least, thatās how many of us think.
It takes a lot of mental effort to say āIām only 80% sure about thisā. Yet, instead of occupying the shades of grey between right and wrong, we hedge our bets on being right in an āall or nothingā approach.
But, if we redefine our āconfidenceā in decision-making, this might be better for ourselves and those around us.
Better For Us
If we incorporate uncertainty into our decision-making now, the small seeds of mental effort may just grow into a tree of wisdom down the line.
āWe win bets by striving to calibrate our beliefs and predictions about the future to more accurately represent the world.āā
Here are a few reasons why we should redefine our āconfidenceā, for our own benefit:
Calibrating our beliefs towards an accurate conclusion over a preferred one prepares us for being wrong. If weāre betting on something to happen and define our confidence at 75%, we wonāt be let down for the 1-in-4 times that weāre wrong.
As a result of the above, weāre less judgemental towards ourselves. If we were 100% confident about our decision and things didnāt go our way, weād be 100% wrong. The hurt of being wrong is stronger than the pleasure of being right.
Making small adjustments in our confidence levels feels better than the gross downgrade of being ārightā to āwrongā.
If we believe that weāre 100% correct, we close off the opportunity for others to collaborate with us in order to get closer to the truth.
Better For Others
How we define our confidence plays a big part in how we interact with others and how they view us.
Here are a few reasons why we should redefine our āconfidenceā, for the benefit of others:
Saying that weāre 80% sure informs others that weāve given serious consideration to both sides, inviting a psychologically safe environment for them to offer up new information.
Much of what we believe is influenced by āmotivated reasoningā (biased reasoning to justify our decisions). If we tell others that weāre 100% confident (which is often unrealistic), we are likely to support it by infecting them with our biased reasoning.
Smart people close themselves off to those who express their beliefs on two extremesāāāthey can see through the motivated reasoning behind strong, unsupported convictions. If we communicate to them that weāre not 100% sure about what weāre saying, theyāre less likely to walk away.
If you want to appear confident in the short-term, continue to chase the extremes and simply being ārightā or āwrongā.
If you want to seek truth, make better decisions and invite collaborators in the process, redefine the confidence of your decisions.
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